The tug-of-war over Black suburban voters

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Dec 23, 2022 View in browser   By POLITICO MAGAZINE Happy Friday! Before we get to the newsletter, we have a question for you: How are we doing? Take our POLITICO Weekend survey to let us know what you like about the newsletter — and what's missing. Illustration by Beth Suzanna America is seeing a dramatic change in its suburbs. More Black people now live in the outskirts of cities than ever before, and that demographic shift is redefining politics in the nation's battlegrounds — the neighborhoods where presidential campaigns are won or lost — and where control of Congress will be decided for the foreseeable future. According to a POLITICO Magazine analysis, Black people living in U.S. suburbs ballooned during the first two decades of this century, increasing from 8.8 million to 13.6 million nationwide. On the surface, that's great news for Democrats, who have historically benefited from the strong support of the Black community. (Just look at Texas, where 84 percent of Black voters casted Democratic ballots in the state's gubernatorial race.) But Republicans won't be giving up their suburbs without a fight. For starters, they have the benefit of controlling redistricting in 19 states — drawing maps to their advantage by grouping diversifying suburbs with conservative rural areas. They also believe that their messaging on education and the economy could be a hit with Black suburbanites. David Siders, Sean McMinn, Brakkton Booker and Jesús A. Rodríguez explore this growing tug-of-war between Democrats and Republicans over Black suburbanites in the latest installment of our yearlong series "The Next Great Migration." Read the story.   "[He's] a real centaur — part man, part horse's ass." Can you guess who said this about then-President Lyndon B. Johnson? Scroll to the bottom for the answer.**   Credit: Tasja Keetman A Secret Report Surfaces...  As Michael Schaffer reported last week, Zia Chishti, the politically connected Washington entrepreneur, filed a defamation suit against the woman whose Congressional testimony about sexual misconduct got Chishti ousted from a CEO job. Someone in Congress seemed to think that suing a witness was bad form: A scathing arbitration tribunal ruling about Chishti's behavior was quietly inserted into the Congressional record after the column was released — turning the previously secret document into something the public can access. Oops. The document, writes Schaffer in this week's Capital City column, tracks with what Chishti's accuser testified, and appears "utterly devastating" for him. Turns out that lawsuits have a way of bringing other unsavory accusations to light. In Washington, where Chishti's firm had attracted a bunch of A-listers to its advisory board, some of the details have the potential to become a political embarrassment.   The Jan. 6 Committee has just released its report, a 845-page long document making the case that Donald Trump was the primary force behind the storming of the Capitol, and laying out in more detail than we've ever seen the behind-the-scenes machinations leading up to that day amid Trump's attempts to overturn the election. Here's what you need to know to sound in the know, without having read it yet. (From Garrett Graff)  - To sound like you read it, say, "It's easy to forget that Jan. 6 could have been much worse — the committee's detailed list on page 641 of the number of firearms present among the rioters shows there could have been even more violence and death that day." - Feel free to brush aside the week's other big headline out of the Jan. 6 committee: "Who cares that they made criminal referrals — special counsel Jack Smith's first question is going to be, 'Where's the evidence?' It's the evidence that the committee has collected in the report that matters, not the formal process of a criminal referral. (And the committee's depositions are pretty damning; Cassidy Hutchison's tale of being pressured by Trump lawyers sounds like it's right out of a Mafia movie.)" - For some historical sweep, point out, "The January 6th Committee is no 9/11 Commission, but it's probably still one of the three or four most historic congressional investigations in history — right up there with Watergate and the Army-McCarthy hearings. Its use of videotaped testimony and multimedia in its hearings is going to rewrite congressional investigations for years to come." - What's next? Say knowingly, "The biggest challenge for the committee is going to be on any kind of follow-up — Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger are gone entirely, and the GOP majority that starts in ten days is going to dedicate itself to making it seem like the Jan. 6 report is the new Warren Commission or Benghazi—conspiracies all the way down." - Caution your Maddow-fan relatives by telling them not to look for any quick movement: "We'll probably know by Easter if Garland will indict Donald Trump — he can't push the decision too late without risking hitting primary season in 2024. An indictment by Easter would still mean a trial could unfold by the end of the year. But what DOJ does is hardly the only interesting prosecution question here: State prosecutors in Georgia, Nevada, and elsewhere are going to be reading Chapters 2 and 3, about Trump's phone call to the Georgia secretary of state and the fake electors scheme, with great interest too."   6 percent … of Republican voters say they never believed in Santa Claus, compared to 15 percent of Democrat voters and 16 percent of independent voters.   Evan Agostini/AP Photo Tame Your Musk Obsession … Since his purchase of Twitter, the billionaire CEO has been everywhere, throwing bold proclamations and petty complaints at the wall to see what sticks. But Musk's always been a champ at calling attention to himself, and given his track record, reporters should put little stock in what he says. Instead, the press continues to chart and publish nearly every bold utterance he makes and every tweet he types into his account, writes Jack Shafer in this week's Fourth Estate column. The people tasked with covering Musk should learn not to jump at his every move; it's time to close down the Elon Musk circus.   POLTICO illustration Since 1927, the White House has been filling the mailboxes of family, friends, staffers and, more recently, supporters with holiday cards. They range from the classic to the downright lazy (having the same artist draw essentially the same card as the previous year), ugly (an Obama-era 3-D monstrosity) and just plain weird (like the midcentury offering that looks more like it should be nailed to the door of a church). In the spirit of the season, POLITICO Magazine found the 10 worst White House holiday cards of all time.   Don't forget to take our survey!   **Who Dissed answer: That would be President Harry Truman's Secretary of State Dean Acheson, who nevertheless counseled LBJ on Vietnam, suggesting he make peace with North Vietnam in 1968. politicoweekend@email.politico.com   Follow us

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