The political trends behind this week’s events

January 09, 2021 | by Julian L. Mertz | No comments

January 9, 2021

Weekly Roundup

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A note to our readers

Congress affirmed Joe Biden’s election victory in the early hours of Thursday morning, but not before a violent mob of President Donald Trump’s supporters stormed the Capitol, forcing lawmakers to be evacuated until order was restored.

Against this backdrop, Biden and the 117th Congress are preparing to get to work. Democrats will have narrow majorities in both legislative chambers after winning a pair of runoff Senate elections in Georgia this week. Even so, Biden faces clear challenges in uniting the country after the bitterly contested election and its violent aftermath.

Our newsletter this week looks more closely at the composition of the new Congress, the changing Georgia electorate that sent two Democrats to the Senate, and the well-documented partisan divisions that burst into public view this week.

Faith on the Hill: The religious composition of the 117th Congress

When it comes to religious affiliation, the 117th U.S. Congress looks similar to the previous Congress, but quite different from Americans overall. While about a quarter of U.S. adults are religiously unaffiliated, just one member of the new Congress identifies that way. And nearly nine-in-ten members of Congress identify as Christian, compared with two-thirds of the general public.

Slim majorities have become more common in the U.S. Senate and House

Democrats’ narrow partisan advantages in the 117th Congress are part of a long-running trend: In both legislative bodies, slim majorities have become more common in recent decades. In fact, the new Congress is one of only two in the last six decades in which Democrats and Republicans have the same number of Senate seats as the term gets underway.

Once again, nearly all Senate elections reflect states’ presidential votes

After victories by Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff this week, 34 of this election cycle’s 35 Senate races were won by candidates of the same party that carried the state in the presidential contest. The vast majority of the regular and special Senate elections held since 2012 – 156 of 174 – have been won by candidates who belonged to or were aligned with the party that won that state’s most recent presidential race.

The changing Georgia electorate

Once a reliably Republican state, Georgia surprised many observers by voting for a Democratic presidential candidate and two Democratic senators in the 2020-21 election cycle. The results come amid broader demographic changes in the state, both in the state’s eligible voter population and among those who are registered to vote.

What Biden and Trump supporters tell us in their own words about America’s political divisions

For years, our surveys have provided considerable evidence of just how politically divided the nation is. So in a survey conducted after the November election, we asked an open-ended question: Tell us something – anything – you’d like the supporters of the opposing presidential candidate to know to understand you a little better. The responses underscore the deep animosity that many Biden and Trump voters feel toward each other, but also the hopes that some have for greater political unity in the country.

America is exceptional in the nature of its political divide

The U.S. is hardly the only country wrestling with deepening political fissures, but recent events have revealed how pervasive the divide in American politics is relative to other nations.

From our research

73%

The share of voters who said in a November poll that they were not confident there will be a smooth transition to a Biden presidency.

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